If you’ve ever built a donor persona, you know how strangely specific they can become. Suddenly, you’re hashing out the details of “Supporter Steve,” who drinks cold brew, prefers national parks to beaches, and donates most often on Wednesday nights after his bike ride.
It sounds thoughtful — and even strategic. Until you realize that none of that information actually predicts whether or not Steve will donate.
That was the point Matt Wallaert, Chief Experience Officer at Oceans and former Head of Behavioral Science and Microsoft, made during his closing keynote at Fundraise Up’s Donor Experience Summit last fall.
“Anyone selling you a persona is an asshole,” Matt said bluntly. Why? Because personas only tell you who someone is — not what they do. And when you’re trying to influence donor behavior, only one thing matters: the behavior itself.
Why personas don’t predict donor behavior
Personas make you feel like you understand your donors — their motivations, habits, and even their go-to coffee orders. But as Matt pointed out, that confidence is almost entirely misplaced.
“All personas do is layer biases on biases,” he said. They focus on surface-level details that might seem important, yet never actually predict whether or not someone will take a specific action.
“Let me tell you about Shane,” Matt continued with an example. “He lives on the Upper West Side. He has a little white dog, and he likes watching the NFL.”
That information feels detailed and insightful. But the bigger question is what will Shane do? Will he give? Will he volunteer? Will he open your next email? Knowing his zip code and choice of pet won’t answer any of those questions.
That’s the core issue: Personas describe people, not behaviors. And successful fundraising is fundamentally about affecting behavior.
The 5 groups that define all donors
Personas fall short because they focus on traits rather than actions. So, Matt suggests an alternative that’s rooted entirely in observable behavior. As he explained, “There are only five groups that matter: Always, Never, Sometimes, Started, Stopped.”
These categories describe how people relate to a behavior at any given moment. They’re mutually exclusive and exhaustive, so every donor fits into one — and only one — group for a specific action. Here’s a closer look at each:
- Always: They consistently do the behavior. In fundraising terms, think long-term supporters, your most committed volunteers, or reliable event participants.
- Never: They have never done the behavior — not yet, at least.
- Sometimes: They do it inconsistently, motivated one moment and distracted the next.
- Started: They recently began doing the behavior. Something changed that nudged them into action.
- Stopped: They used to do the behavior, but no longer do. Something changed here, too — a barrier appeared or a motivation disappeared.
Matt emphasized that “started” and “stopped” are especially helpful sources of insights because they involve what’s called “proximal change.” Put simply, something shifted in the person’s world recently, which means you can ask what happened — and get a reliable answer.
To demonstrate this, Matt described a hypothetical person who had recently started walking more. Why was he walking more? Because a hip issue made basketball — his usual activity — too uncomfortable. But what if he said he had stopped because the friend he used to play with had moved away? That would point to a completely different reason for the change.
It’s a powerful takeaway for fundraisers who tend to focus on persona bullet points over real behaviors. As Matt said, “Knowing why people are behaving the way that they are allows us to then change those behaviors.”
How to use these groups to drive donor action
Here are a few practical ways you can use this behavioral model to improve donor engagement and increase giving.
1. Re-segment your donor file based on behavior (not demographics)
Start by choosing a specific action (like making a first gift, becoming a recurring donor, or attending an event) and then mapping your donors into the five groups.
You’ll quickly see how different this looks from traditional demographic or persona-based segmentation — and how much clearer your strategy becomes when you’re working with observable behavior.
2. Pay close attention to ‘started’ and ‘stopped’
Again, these groups deserve closer inspection because something recently changed — and it’s your job to figure out what.
For example, if someone just started donating, ask:
- What nudged them into giving?
- Was there a specific appeal, moment, designation, or channel?
However, if someone recently stopped donating, look for sources of friction, such as:
- Failed payments
- Confusing step in the flow
- Messaging shift
- Lapse in follow-up
There’s always a reason for behavioral change — and once you know it, you can act on it.
3. Match your interventions to the reason for the behavior
Behavior change is never random — and the reason behind it determines the right response. As Matt explained, two people can show the same change but for completely different reasons, which means one-size-fits-all interventions won’t work.
Imagine that you noticed a donor had stopped contributing. You can’t adequately solve that problem until you know what caused it.
- If they stopped because their card expired, you could use automated reminders of expiring payment methods or automatic card updates.
- If they stopped because they lost interest in your cause, you could try adjusting your messaging and storytelling.
The why behind the behavior guides your strategy — not the persona you assigned to them.
4. Use behavioral signals to personalize outreach
You don’t need assumptions about age, education, or hobbies to successfully tailor your outreach. You just need to look at your Insights Dashboard to see what your donors are actually doing, such as:
- Who upgraded last month
- Who gave twice in quick succession
- Who set up a recurring donation
- Who fell off after many years
These patterns show you where interest is growing, where it’s fading, and where a nudge could make all the difference. When you anchor your messaging in real behavior, your outreach is more relevant — and more likely to drive action.
Insight comes from behavior (not backstories)
Personas might feel familiar, but they can’t tell you what you really need to know: why donors start giving, stop giving, or choose to give again.
Behavior can. When you segment your supporters by what they actually do — and not who you imagine them to be — you uncover clearer insights and smarter strategies.
That’s why Fundraise Up is built around real donor behavior. The platform analyzes actions like giving frequency, upgrade signals, checkout patterns, and lapses (not static profiles or demographic guesses) to personalize the donor experience.
Ultimately, you don’t need all of the ins and outs of who your donors are — you care most about what they’ll do next.